Friday, January 30, 2009

GDP not nearly as 'good' as it looks

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b918bb98-ee3e-11dd-b791-0000779fd2ac.html

The US economy contracted by an annualised 3.8 per cent in the final quarter of 2008, according to advance estimates released on Friday, a much smaller percentage than expected, but still its worst performance since 1982.

The smaller-than-expected decline, led by a build-up in inventories which boosted GDP by 1.3 percentage points, offered little hope for an economic turnaround, since production will likely continue to slow as companies seek to draw down their stock.

So the decline was really -5.1% and each GDP has been revised downward so the true number may be as bad as -7%

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