#3 in 2009 going to be a busy year for the FDIC

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/01/2009-bank-failure-3-1st-centennial-bank.html

Trends 2009

http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2009/Celente.html
Click the MP3 link to listen or download.

Themes
Collapse of 2009
Commercial Very Over leverage
The Greatest Depression
Momentum is downward and accelerating
Anti-Tax movement to gain traction
Riots to come to US.
Fashion comes back?! End of Gangster look.
War my happen

Cool Poster

http://www.artfact.com/auction-lot/ben-shahn-1898-1969-.-warning-inflation-means-de-282-c-64xx0h9crf

Buy and Hold the path to Hell

http://clusterstock.alleyinsider.com/2009/1/what-ruined-the-banks

Credit Mountain

http://clusterstock.alleyinsider.com/2009/1/the-real-problem-our-debt-mountain
If this was a stock what would you do? SHORT!

Drug War mexico

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/23/us/23elpaso.html?_r=1&ref=us

Worries that the violence in Mexico could spread to the United States reach to the highest levels of the federal government. Last week, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said the Bush administration had laid plans to send a surge of federal agents and soldiers to trouble spots if the violence spilled over.

The conflict in Juárez has led some in El Paso to propose radical solutions. In a symbolic resolution of support for Juárez, the El Paso City Council recently voted unanimously to ask Washington to consider legalizing drugs as a way to end the violence. “We think it should at least be on the table,” Councilman Beto O’Rourke said. On Monday, the Council backed down after the mayor vetoed the resolution and local members of Congress warned that the Council’s stance might imperil federal aid.

Congress wants the war on drugs, why? Money. The Drug war makes people lots of money. End it and lots of people lose.

Why bottom calling is like...

http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/01/merrill_traders_to_mortgage_assets_i_wish_i_knew_h.php

Catching a 100 knifes at once.

And here's the larger point: Merrill's massive fourth quarter losses, which prompted B of A to seek a second government bailout, weren't caused only by investments made before the collapse of the mortgage market, and the extent of the financial crisis, became apparent. Rather, they were in part the result of continuing to buy bad mortgage assets into the fall.

Idiots.

How TARP is being doaled out.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123258284337504295.html
I am not surpirsed just sad.

Read Item #3

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/CHINA-economy-currency-intervention-Swiss-zero/index/a/20753

Very danagours stuff. Decalring China economic war on china while we are weak is stupid. However if you go back to my 20 things for 2009 I clearly think this will happen.

Great take on the China Q4 GDP numbers

http://v2.ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/01/23/51589/albert-edwards-lol-china/
Clearly something is wrong with China's numbers.

the rage of people

http://rethinkingsecurity.typepad.com/rethinkingsecurity/2009/01/clausewitz-the-rage-of-the-people-and-strategies-of-positive-ends.html

Gold

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/precious-metals-and-gems/is-the-gold-market-really-rigged-14501.aspx

Problems in the gold market?

Wow just an awesome article

http://www.city-journal.org/2009/19_1_credit.html

FDR Vs Obama Day 1

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azQJo_wu7f64

FDR Day 1 Bank holiday for four days, issued an executive order to seize private gold.
Scale of action on the audacious scale 10 out of 10. I don't not recommend or approve of any it just rating the scale of the moves.

Obama Day 1
Pay freeze for government employees over 100K per year
Tigthens Lobbing restrictions for current employees
Issue executive orders to look at closing gitmo and leaving Iraq.
Scale of action on the audacious scale 1 out of 10.

So far he is no Lincoln or FDR. So far slow and cautious. Just like his campaign.

Britian and its Bank Troubles

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/iainmartin/4308950/Nationalise-RBS-then-rebuild-capitalism.html

If you replace Britian with US and Tory with OBama you have the perfect advice for the US.

Why do you play the lotto

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/11/weekinreview/11carey.html?_r=1&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink
Very interesting.

Question of the day

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/01/22/51543/the-mattress-savings-plan/
Safe to store money in your mattress? Not really is my take.

Housing Starts

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/01/housing-starts-at-all-time-low.html
Worse on record since 1959. Housing is still in free fall with no end in site.

Radio is old media?

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20090121-hard-times-all-around-for-radio-pandora-adds-commercials.html
I hate radio. Way to much talk, Way to much crap music. I now hate siruis (Great short) to much crap music and with the merge almost all the interesting stations are gone. Pandora is awesome I hope they make it.

Can you trust the Banks and thier Accounting?

http://www.247wallst.com/2009/01/an-ugly-truth-a.html#more
I will say almost all the Very Aggressive have appeared on my radar as long term shorts.

A race between Poland and Ireland to default.

http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/economics-and-demography/the-forex-lending-crunch-means-trouble-is-looming-large-in-poland/

Ireland, IMF and Big trouble

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2009/jan/20/irish-compensation-scheme

British savers who placed their money in Irish banks have been warned they are longer covered by the UK's compensation scheme.

Imaging if you will the FDIC declaring your bank not covered. What would you do? What this may setup is a classic run on the bank that will force Ireland to nationalize the banks. Whoops, they don't have enough money. IMF to the rescue? Do they have that much money left?

One can also ask is the UK running out of money?

http://www.citywire.co.uk/personal/-/comment/morning-line/content.aspx?ID=326851

Put simply, the UK is running out of money and the government is losing control.

Not good.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idUKLJ43131520090119
IMF on the issue.

WOW

http://alphaville.ftdata.co.uk/lib/inc/getfile/4156.jpg

Obama VS FDR First 100 Days

Below are the major accomplishments of FDR and the first 100 days.
Good luck matching these sweeping changes. I will post a comparison after the first 100 days pass.
March 5
FDR issues a proclamation declaring a four-day "bank holiday" throughout the nation effective March 6. All banking transactions stop and embargo on exportation of gold, silver, and currency. Summons Congress to special session for March 9.

March 9-June 16
"Hundred Days" session FDR gets a willing Congress to enact many of the New Deal programs. This first day Congress passes the Emergency Banking Act, giving FDR broad powers over banks and foreign exchange. Bank holiday ends March 10--banks can reopen when they prove that they are solvent. Within three days, 1000 banks will reopen and national confidence picks up.

March 12
FDR gives first "fireside chat".

March 31
Congress passes the Reforestation Relief Act, establishing the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC); it provides work immediately for 250,000 young men (18-25) in reforestation, road construction and developing national parks. Work camps begin to spring up. By the time it eases in 1941, two million people have worked on its projects.

April 19
FDR takes the nation off of the gold standard.

May 12
Congress passes the Federal Emergency Relief Act, which authorizes immediate grants to states for relief projects. Unemployment has reached 14 million-over one quarter of the nation's work force.

Roosevelt signs the Agricultural Adjustment Act to provide immediate relief to farmers by setting prices for agricultural products and paying subsidies to farmers for curtailing production of certain crops that were in surplus.

May 18
Congress establishes the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) to construct dams and power plants along the Tennessee Valley; electricity will go to residents, many of whom lacked it previously, and fertilizer will be sold.

May 27
Congress passes the Federal Securities Act to monitor and regulate stocks and bonds.

June 6
Congress passes the National Employment System Act.

June 13
Congress passes the Home Owners Refinancing Act to provide mortgage money and other aid to homeowners. It will go out of business in June 1936 after providing loans for some one million mortgages.

June 16
The final day of the "Hundred Days" session. Congress passes the National Industrial Recovery Act (NIRA) establishing the Public Works Administration (PWA) and the National Recovery Administration (NRA).

The PWA is authorized to supervise the construction of roads, public buildings and other projects while providing employment. Secretary of the Interior Harold Ickes is tapped to head the PWA.

The NRA's goal is to stimulate competition and benefit producers and consumers by implementing various codes to establish fair trade. Compliance was to be voluntary; those who cooperate received the blue eagle "seal of approval." NRA is to be directed by General Hugh Johnson. It will be declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court in May 1935.

Congress also passes the Farm Credit Act and the Banking Act of 1933 (which establishes FDIC).

http://xroads.virginia.edu/~MA02/volpe/newdeal/timeline_text.html

From an Ohio Senator to you

A Dozen Fun Facts About the House Democrats’ Massive Spending Bill
1. The House Democrats’ bill will cost each and every household $6,700 additional debt, paid for by our children and grandchildren.
2. The total cost of this one piece of legislation is almost as much as the annual discretionary budget for the entire federal government.
3. President-elect Obama has said that his proposed stimulus legislation will create or save three million jobs. This means that this legislation will spend about $275,000 per job. The average household income in the U.S. is $50,000 a year.
4. The House Democrats’ bill provides enough spending - $825 billion - to give every man, woman, and child in America $2,700.
5. $825 billion is enough to give every person living in poverty in the U.S. $22,000.
6. $825 billion is enough to give every person in Ohio $72,000.
7. Although the House Democrats’ proposal has been billed as a transportation and infrastructure investment package, in actuality only $30 billion of the bill - or three percent - is for road and highway spending. A recent study from the Congressional Budget Office said that only 25 percent of infrastructure dollars can be spent in the first year, making the one year total less than $7 billion for infrastructure.
8. Much of the funding within the House Democrats’ proposal will go to programs that already have large, unexpended balances. For example, the bill provides $1 billion for Community Development Block Grants (CDBG), which already have $16 billion on hand. And, this year, Congress has plans to rescind $9 billion in highway funding that the states have not yet used.
9. In 1993, the unemployment rate was virtually the same as the rate today (around seven percent). Yet, then-President Clinton’s proposed stimulus legislation ONLY contained $16 billion in spending.
10. Here are just a few of the programs and projects that have been included in the House Democrats’ proposal:
• $650 million for digital TV coupons.
• $6 billion for colleges/universities - many which have billion dollar endowments.
• $166 billion in direct aid to states - many of which have failed to budget wisely.
• $50 million in funding for the National Endowment of the Arts.
• $44 million for repairs to U.S. Department of Agriculture headquarters.
• $200 million for the National Mall, including grass planting.
• $400 million for “National Treasures.”
11. Almost one-third of the so called tax relief in the House Democrats’ bill is spending in disguise, meaning that true tax relief makes up only 24 percent of the total package - not the 40 percent that President-elect Obama had requested.
12. $825 billion is just the beginning - many Capitol Hill Democrats want to spend even more taxpayer dollars on their “stimulus” plan.

Hat tip to John Boehner

4 more years? What happen to change?

http://clusterstock.alleyinsider.com/2009/1/new-administration-ready-to-save-banks-screw-you

plot to overthrow FDR

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=628728631767818729
Scary stuff. I look for something similar to be discovered once we start cutting government in a meaningful way.

Are we an Empire?

http://www.channel4.com/history/microsites/H/history/t-z/warworld1.html

Very interesting read.

America passes a milestone!

http://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/2009/01/20/milestone/

Not in a good way

Obama helps some party of the economy.

http://businesssheet.alleyinsider.com/2009/1/sex-and-dope-high-in-demand-for-the-inauguration

Maybe if they where legal we would benefit instead of funding the underground economy.

Soros says TARP haphazard and capricious

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE50I4XZ20090119

Jim Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, said the “U.K. is finished

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&refer=asia&sid=agxlt5ZPtyLA
Ouch, a downgrade of britian would rank up there with a downgrade of the USA.

Pain in California

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/01/sharing-pain-in-california.html

Excellent post from Mish

Spain Loses AAA first time since 2001

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/01/20/51372/sp-trims-spains-rating-as-euro-slides/

Further pressure for the euro to go lower.

More 'sunshine' from Roubini

http://v2.ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/01/20/51397/roubini-not-even-halfway-there/
I fully expect the problems to continue to mount.

Fiat to re-enter US Market via Chrylser deal

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123238519459294991.html

Dr Doom on UK Banking Bailout

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28730368

Of note RBS is down 65% since this was announced. I also think we are making a huge mistake supporting the ailing banks.

Jim rogers Says the dollar is doomed

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28730871