Thursday, December 25, 2008

Japan falls of a clidff

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28387318

Production is falling off a cliff.

The outlook is also grim.


More bad news for Q1

SEC and COX

http://clusterstock.alleyinsider.com/2008/12/secs-cox-i-didnt-want-that-stupid-short-selling-ban-but-paulson-made-me-do-it
Whatever. You are the guy in charge. Man up or get out.

Happy Holidays

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2008/12/christmas-present-for-ubernerds.html
Hat tip to CR.

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

GMAC dodges a bullet

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5ipXQ4Xt28W8JuZ1_k7BkHKzdsApgD959AJ780

We postpone another BK.

Cerebus

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYRolHyQg960&refer=home
If they survive another 6 months I would be surprised.

“We still believe we bought well,” he said of Chrysler and GMAC. “In those cases, we got caught in what we see as a ‘perfect storm’ in the auto and housing sectors.”

Who is the bigger fool those who blame the storm or those who saw the storm and laughed about it. There is no way this was a good buy if you look deep at GMAC you should have been very scared. And buying a aging and tired auto company is not a good buy.

Internet Ad revenue

http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20081224/new-york-times-november-was-so-terrible-even-our-interent-ads-were-down/?reflink=ATD_yahoo_ticker
Bad signs for those depending Internet advertising. IE Google and Yahoo

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

2009 Headlines of the year!

Top 10 Headlines in 2009

1) China-USA trade war
2) Civil unrest in detriot
3) Drug War violense spreads to US from Mexico
4) Obama's Massive Tax increases.
5) cali and NY decalre Bankruptcty
6) The fall of muniplicials tied to SCDO
7) The Great Pension Crises
8) Why Gold did not play out as expected
9) Oil at $100 Again
10) FDIC requires Bailout money

bonus!
11) Failed Bank list tops 100
12) Ford the last car maker left.
13) Why did the treasury bubble collapase.
14) Is this a replay of 1933
15) AIG goes out of business
16) CRE Markets worse shape ever.
17) Loses from the credit crises top $2 Trillion
18) Euro/Dollar now at 1:1
19) Major Crisies forces change in China
20) Putin is discredited and steps down

More 2009 Themes

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a2gMphgAVl3U&refer=home

Civil unrest and reliance on superstitions

http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2008/12/22/the_major_risks.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/3870089/Protectionist-dominoes-are-beginning-to-tumble-across-the-world.html

Frozen Ports in Long Beach, Singapore Mean Bleak 2010

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=avcTZKlpHRqw&refer=home

Trade has grinded to a halt. Q1 and Q2 are going to be really ugly.

Awesome!

http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12798307

Credit Crunch the Board GAME!

Trouble in Mexico

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Cali and NY go BK 2009 headline

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2008-12-22/what-if-new-york-go-bust/

synthetic collateralized debt obligation

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122999335538628723.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Another word for 2009.

Monday, December 22, 2008

Hyperinflation

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2008/12/federal_reserve_1.html

What it looks like in Zimbabwe
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2008/06/27/the-64000000000-inflation-question/

More feared then Deflation.

http://caps.fool.com/blogs/viewpost.aspx?bpid=119784&t=01006124249416869148


http://online.barrons.com/article/SB122973300556423035.html?mod=googlenews_barrons

See page 2

CRE all the talk in 2009

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2008/12/reis-commercial-real-estate-loan.html

We wonder why know one

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/3869117/General-George-S.-Patton-was-assassinated-to-silence-his-criticism-of-allied-war-leaders-claims-new-book.html
We wonder why know one believes the government. If this is true.

FDIC running out of money?

http://optionarmageddon.ml-implode.com/2008/12/20/hey-barackyou-might-want-to-see-this/

World faces total financial meltdown: Spain's bank chief

http://www.businessday.com.au/business/world-business/world-faces-total-financial-meltdown-spains-bank-chief-20081222-734j.html
Just another sunny day.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/21/AR2008122102171.html?hpid=topnews

In hard times, analysts say, nations are more inclined to take steps that inhibit trade, often with dire consequences. Trade restrictions imposed by countries trying to protect domestic industries in the 1930s, for instance, escalated into a global trade war that deepened and prolonged the Great Depression.

Count on politicans to due the wrong thing.

What Bush did.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/21/business/21admin.html?em
I dislike look back pieces like this cause it is easier to see the right answer in hindsight. However there are several key points to the article which are correct.
Give it a read and decided for yourself.

Lets check on Ireland

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aMlHWBjivGkw&refer=home

The government will inject 1.5 billion euros into Anglo Irish in return for preference shares with 75 percent of its voting rights, the government said late yesterday. Allied Irish Banks Plc and Bank of Ireland Plc surged in Dublin trading after getting 2 billion euros apiece.

So you made loans and need a government hand out. No Problem.

Chrysler dead man limping

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/22/business/22chrysler.html?_r=1

In other words, Cerberus appears willing to give up its 80.1 percent stake in Chrysler to the United Automobile Workers and anyone else the troubled automaker owes money to.

Why would you do this? Cause the liabilities are not worth the risk anymore.

Cerberus officials lobbied the White House last week to prevent the private equity firm from being held responsible for the Chrysler loans if the automaker cannot repay them, according to people with knowledge of the talks who declined to be identified because the discussions were private.

But Chrysler executives, who are responsible for the day-to-day operations of the company, were shut out of the discussions, those people said.

Whoops looks like someone has a hot potato

Can you spare a rubel comrade.

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avGyVvJh9b3w&refer=home

Without a revival in commodity prices or state help, some Russian companies risk failing, according to Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the world’s largest bond fund.

Not going to happen anytime soon.

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Failure to Bail out Bank Topples Belgian Government

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28325166

Third time the government has falling in a year. Just more cracks.