Empty Tables Threaten Some Restaurant Chains

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/04/business/04restaurant.html?_r=1&ref=business

From personal experence resturants are diffcult to run and make a profit from in the best of times. With Margins a razor thin 5%, one single mistake can doom a company. Tied with a terrible service, bad food and other problems with chain resturants I am not surprised to see chains failing.

The banker who broke the mold

http://www.forbes.com/2009/04/03/banking-andy-beal-business-wall-street-beal.html

Obama Gets tough on the banker robb...CEO's

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0409/20871.html

In not shocking to anyone with a Brain news, Loan Modifications do not work

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/04/03/loan-modifications-not-he_n_182872.html

Spain a tail of losses

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/04/spains-savings-banks-may-have-40-billion-in-writedowns.html

What happens if Spain fails. Where is that in our stress test? We continue to underestimated how bad it could be. Let me suggest the worse is yet to come.

Shadow Stats says we are at 19.5% Unemployment

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/todays-real-payroll-number-750000-total.html

Mortgage Insurance Woes Grow for Fannie, Freddie

http://www.housingwire.com/2009/04/02/mortgage-insurance-woes-grow-for-fannie-freddie/

Imagine paying full premium for an insurance contract, and receiving only 60 percent on any claim you make

Very bad news for Freddie/Fannie. This is start of a very bad trend. Getting 40% less makes loss much worse.

Bomb Iran still in discussion.

http://blog.wired.com/defense/2009/04/how-would-israe.html#more

I thought for sure this would be off the table by now. But with the election of the Hawks in Israel it is looking like something will happen. I can only say this would be a disaster of epic proportions. It would at a minimum spur attacks against Israel and would likely draw the US into some type of regional conflict when we are trying to extract ourselves from Iraq. What happen to MADD? I do not think that Iran is insane and who launch an nuclear attack against Israel.

Gun to Head, Banks may be forced to sell another 1 Trillion in Loans

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aylbeokVZaWo

U6 for March 2009

http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm

15.6 U6 and 8.5 U3. Just ugly numbers, we continue to see unemployment increasing without a break. At this pace we will see 10% around June. That will mark a new and more ugly phase. Crossing the point of 10-1 of employed vs unemployed. At this point we begin to strain the system.

Today's Must Read the VF story on 8 years of Bush

http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2009/02/bush-oral-history200902?printable=true¤tPage=all

AIG a Fraud

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/04/aig-before-cds-there-was-reinsurance/

AIG was a ponzi scheme and we are bailing them out.

The coin Toss game or the Geithner's Toxic Asset Plan

http://www.businessinsider.com/david-kotok-geithners-toxic-asset-plan-stinks-2009-4

Clearly explained why this plan is awful.

Smoking Gun Exclusive: Exxon Pension Fund Sues Northern Trust Alleging "Massive Losses"

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/03/smoking-gun-exxon-pension-fund-files.html

Just the start of a trend. Look for some major players to have some ugly lawsuits from the losses hedge funds incurred on their behalf.

ADP jobs report 4/1/2009

http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/pdf/FINAL_Report_March_09.pdf

How bad is this? Very. ADP has for the last year been under what the true numbers have been. We are looking at 8.6% this month. At this pace we would see 10% in less then 4 months. Signs continue to point to acceleration of unemployment. I view 10% as massive physiological number.

Ticking time Bomb of CRE

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/04/commercial-real-estate-limbo-lenders.html

excellent take by Mish on the ticking time bomb of CRE. I think now only a matter of time before we have a major stock event.

Obama and the double standard of Wall Street VS detroit

http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-obamas-weird-double-standard-2009-4

Lots of talk about this. I fully agree. We need this approach to Wall Street and we needed it months ago.

Some Clear thoughts from Dr. Nassim Taleb

http://dailybail.com/home/the-black-swan-doesnt-need-a-bailout-dr-nassim-taleb-says-be.html

SP500 Long and Deep Puts

Picking up some Dec 2009 Puts at 200. I think in the 2Q things are going to turn bloody.

Mexico goes to IMF for SLF

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/03/mexico-goes-hat-in-hand-to-the-imf.html

Hmm...Weird stuff going on. Peso devaluation was a big topic in Mexico when I was there. It is possible this is move to attempt pre-empt other country and Mexico is expecting big trouble from the auto maker problems. Question of the day is the Auto non-bailout another Lehman moment? Are we underestimating the impact of a major overhaul of the big three?

U.S. small businesses stressed, jobs weak

http://in.biz.yahoo.com/090327/137/batdhr.html

"They have used every source of funding they know to stay alive. They have maxed out their credit cards, they've depleted their 401(k) (retirement plans) and borrowed from family and friends," said Cloutier, an industry consultant.

50% of workers are in small business. If even 10% fail you are looking at another 5 million unemployed. If GM and C go down, it will likey take 10% with it, on top of the current works which would be unemployed and the the pension mess on the other side.
Very grim times ahead.

An easter Special, How speculation almost ruined eggs

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/31/not-so-fresh-eggs/#more-6953

Geithner's "Nuclear Option" Should Scare Bejesus Out Of Bondholders

http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-geithners-nuclear-option-should-scare-bejesus-out-of-bank-bondholders-2009-3

Never bring a gun to a nuke fight.

Dance Music is recession proof?

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iz_lEh74SurKHv1j7z_Vq8eO26hwD9773ULG0

I was just there and it was clearly packed for most events. I saw no signs of declining attendance and no shortage of people paying top dollar for drinks. At Ultra they ran out of $5 water and $7 beer. The Hotels seemed packed. So what makes people go out and party without care?

Mexico a Failed state?

http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/6967.html#more-6967

Having just come back from Mexico City, I can tell you most people think it is funny or rude that we are calling them a failed state. In there eyes we are over blowing the crisis there. Yes the Drug violence is bad, but in a large context lets look at it. There are around 500,000 Drug Cartel members and about 7000 have died in a year and half. So your chance of death is about 1%. High but not that high. Lets look at combat death Iraq. About 150,000 troops in Country, with about 3000 Combat deaths. 2% change of death. So it is more dangerous to be in a war zone then work in a illegal and violent drug cartel. Mexico will not fail cause of the cartels. It will fail if unemployment increases or the USA sufferers a lot more pain.

Mirage of Recovery and AIG

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/03/exclusive-aig-was-responsible-for-banks.html

The great Pension Crisies

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2009/03/30/pension_insurer_shifted_to_stocks/?page=full

Straght from Top 20 news stories of 2009 we have the great pension problem. As soon as we 'fix' the automakers the problems here will become another Trillion dollar problem.

Is he Hoover or FDR

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/03/barack-obama-as-herbert-hoover.html

I agree with the Key parts of this article. He is clearly in the Hoover period. Also the G20 is clearly going to produce nothing. This is 1931. We had a crash, we think we see the light at the end of the tunnel. The sound tells us it is a on coming train. If he lets GM go BK and Chrylser fail we could reach a tipping point in unemployment. This is could be a major disatar. Coupled with extranel problems in Eastern Europe, the UK, Ireland, Asia and Most of Latin America. We could see a major event in the near term. I feel sorry for everyone in goverment at this point. We have talked and spent on useless things. Now it may be too late.

U6 Nears 15% 7 states above 10%

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/03/double-digit-unemployment-rates-are-un.html

Very ugly numbers. Once again we need breaks on unemployment. We need to arrest the loss of jobs before this becomes a tidal wave. Looking for U3 to break 10% by the end of the year. If so all bets are off for the budget. We could see deficts soar much higher than predicted.

Ireland downgraded

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/03/30/54198/sp-strips-ireland-of-its-triple-a-rating/

Ireland is just one of many wavering dominions.

Social Secuity The Ticking Bomb that speed up

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=asbiybVqsYC0

Very scary stuff.

Today's Must read- Former IMF official and the USA

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/print/200905/imf-advice

Some Humor for the day

Mortgage Crisis Over? Please, It's Just Beginning

http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-mortgage-crisis-over-please-its-just-beginning-2009-3

Back!

Back from almost 3 weeks of travel. Wow what is going on. I turn on CNBC to see that Obama is getting super tough on the Car makers and still trying to sell a trillion dollar bailout of the banks. Amazing I never thought in a million years to a see such a republican reaction from him. I am sure his supports must be disillusion at this point. To see the same polices of GW Bush still going on. Guess this is not change we can beileive in.