Layoff Tracker

http://www.forbes.com/2008/11/17/layoff-tracker-unemployement-lead-cx_kk_1118tracker.html
Every Million is worth 1% on the unemployment numbers. Does not included the underemployed where a a million laid off may mean 2% more.

Two so far this weekend, Citi still pending

http://www.latimes.com/business/investing/la-fi-banks22-2008nov22,0,3887469.story

The only story left is Citi for the weekend. Look for some annoucement tomorrow.

A tsunami of hope or terror?

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/A-tsunami-of-hope-or-terror-LHRJP?OpenDocument&src=stf
Lets just say when this is over, someone is going to be shot.

China Protest increase

http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/la-fg-chinariots19-2008nov19,0,4258918.story
"But there is no channel to allow people to express their will. They lack the right to speak, the right to organize and unionize to represent their interest, therefore they can only use an irrational way by demonstrating or rioting to solve problems."

All major downturns have caused major collateral damage. This is just sign of what is to come

http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2008/11/sheila-bair-and-seizing-citigroup.html
At this point nothing would be more shocking. A perfect end to the banking system. Full Nationalization would be a last dramatic move to save the world.

Alt-A Losses Outstripping Expectations, Moody’s Says

http://www.housingwire.com/2008/11/20/alt-a-losses-outstripping-expectations-moodys-says/

As of Oct. 2008, serious delinquencies for Alt-A pools — including option ARMs — averaged 20.3 percent of current balance for the 2006 vintage and 17.5 percent for the 2007 vintage, up from 16.9 and 12.2 percent six months ago. At the same time, prepayment rates on these pools are at historical lows and are currently averaging in the mid to high single digits, Moody’s noted. Serious delinquencies refers to mortgages more than 60 days in arrears, in this case.

Ugly.

Google

http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Analyst+Defends+Google+%28GOOG%29%2C+Says+Search+Ads+Will+Hold+Up+Well/4181750.html
Now the greatest Short opportunity left.
Yes I know google is the gold kid of the Internet. Yes I know people say it is worth $500-$600. That will not stop the slide to $150. Online Ads are going to dry up as ecommerce gets whacked.

http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/11/depression-2-0-comes-to-ecommerce

No question a year from know people will wonder how did we not see Google at 150.

Which is worse to bailout GE or GM?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/106445-general-electric-genuine-risk-of-collapse

Either going down would a body blow to the markets. When you look at companies that have survied for so long to be in this much trouble it is sad.

Risk Spreads in Ireland

http://www.rgemonitor.com/euro-monitor/254464/is_ireland_the_next_iceland
In more bad news for UK Banking customers who where lured to Ireland when the government did a guaranty of the Banks. It is now looking increasing likely the country will collase like Iceland. I would give them two more weeks before the government is force to step in.

Fears rise over possible Ecuador default

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Fears-rise-Ecuador-may-default/story.aspx?guid=%7B46EE5CFA%2D6F60%2D4688%2D906C%2D4889080A83FF%7D

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aJGOmMDjxUUY&refer=news

Six times in 100 years. Really why would you lend them money. Just saying.

Signs of Big problems for Hotels

Checking out the price of Hotels in the 'Mile' in Chicago. For the Saturday after thanksgiving. Normally the price would be $500-$600 if you get a room. (from last years trip). This year? $245 on the mile in the Westin. I have never paid these little to staying the holiday Inn. The only other time I saw rates cheaper was Dec of 2001 I stayed in New York at the Waldorf For $200. I am pretty sure there hotel was at its lost point ever.

End of the Big 3

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/19/AR2008111903669.html

The Big Three said nothing, which prompted Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Calif.) to rub it in. "I'm going to ask the three executives here to raise their hand if they flew here commercial," he said. All still at the witness table. "Second," he continued, "I'm going ask you to raise your hand if you're planning to sell your jet . . . and fly back commercial." More stillness. "Let the record show no hands went up," Sherman grandstanded.

Where do we find these people. You are asking for the government to save your company. For Good sake at least flying commercial.

It was a display of stone-cold tone-deafness by the automaker chiefs. In their telling, they have no responsibility for the auto industry's current mess. Threatening the nation with economic Armageddon if they are not given government aid, they spent much of the session declaring what a fine job they've been doing in Detroit.

So it was hard to feel sorry for the executives when Rep. Peter Roskam (R-Ill.), late in the hearing, reminded them again that "the symbolism of the private jet is difficult," and mischievously asked the witnesses whether, in another symbolic gesture, they would be willing to work for $1 a year.

"I don't have a position on that today," demurred Wagoner (2007 total compensation: $15.7 million).

"I understand the intent, but I think where we are is okay," said Mulally ($21.7 million).

And people wonder why the people of the USA will not bail them out.

Now the only question is did the market price in a collapse or bailout. I am voting for a bailout.

Ireland, Next in line now

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/11/is-ireland-next-iceland.html

If the datapoints are correct I would expect Ireland to collapes before the end of the month.

Signs of a collapase

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/11/19/18442/cds-update-gloom/

CDS market was a lead indicator of a further fall for the stock market.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27799264


http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/11/19/18426/cds-report-lurching-towards-armageddon/

European credit spreads were lurching back towards “Armageddon levels” on Wednesday

It is now clear that the failure to rally from the triple bottom will signal a drop to the next support levels. If we close anywhere near the current levels, DJ at 8100 and SP at 830.

Look for 6400-5300 to be the next support level.

So ends the story of Ambac, MGIC and the others

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/11/19/18444/the-death-throes-of-the-bond-insurers/

The outlook for the bond insurance industry is, flatly, bleak.

Once you are a penny stock, forget about it.

Homebuilders DOA

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27791089

The National Association of Homebuilders Housing Market Index hit a record low of 9. This number pivots around 50. Above 50 is good and below 50 is bad. 9 is the all-time super record low. An index of buyer traffic fell to 7

IE no one is buying or looking.

The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association figure that $400 billion of the $1.5 trillion have defaulted, so presumably they have been written down. $250 billion will reset their interest rate in 2009 and another $700 billion in 2010.

Much more loses need to be taking.

Till we clear out the bad loans, we are not going to see progress.

Signs the Dollar is in trouble

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/JK19Dh01.html

The US government needs to borrow at least US$1 trillion in the coming year, excluding the US Treasury's $700 billion plan to bail out the financial and other industries,

IF we borrow this much it will equal the last 4 yesrs of borrowing and includeds no increase or other spending Obama has talked about.

"The dollar now looks strong for a technical reason. The money the US financial firms had invested in the world is being repatriated into the homeland, causing dollar-buying. But once this conversion into the dollars is done, the currency will head south,"

Last done by the Carter Administration.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carter_bonds

This stabilizatin was one of the last acts of 1934 which marked a bottom of the great Depression. If we reach this it will mark either the end of the downturn or if it occurs and things continue to worsen will be off book from history. That is a very scary thought.

Dutch insurer to buy a bank in the US to get TARP Money

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27780339
The madness for everyone to become a bank is crazy.

Bloomberg on the Banks

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aAmfkLEyMPYM&refer=home

``The Fed's commercial paper programs avoided a mid-air collision,'' said Josh Rosner, managing director of New York- based research firm Graham Fisher & Co. Having to deliver on the loan commitments ``would have caused a liquidity crunch'' for the banks that made them, he said.

So there broke.

The 30 biggest U.S. banks hold about $1 of capital for every $11 of ``risk-weighted assets,'' a figure that encompasses assets both on and off the balance sheet, Scott said. Off-books assets get about half the risk-weighting as those on the books, which means banks are required to hold about half the capital.

The assest are crumbling fast.

Some banks already are so burdened with faulty mortgage investments that they might have become ``toast'' with the stress of additional capital requirements, Rosner said.

They are dead man walking

Jeffrey Previdi, a senior director in the public finance unit of Standard & Poor's, said the Fed's actions have brought ``a little bit of return to normalcy'' in the tender-option bond market. ``But there are still some real issues concerning credit or liquidity providers and their strength.''

How long before we know that it is not going back to normal till we purge the bad debt.

Russia Halts Market for 30th time

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTTGqbAfZWjI&refer=home

Russia joins Hungary, Iceland and Pakistan among a handful of central banks raising interest rates to stem currency losses, as the rest of the world cuts the benchmarks to spur lending.

hmm what do all these countries have in common? All bailed out by the IMF expect russia.

$7 Billion wasted trying to save the ruble.

Every time the price of oil decrease the more problems Russia is going to have.