Volker speaks the truth

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29304047

Wonder how long he last as an advisor.

Number 14 this year Bank Failure

http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/silverfalls.html

Germany admits it must help others.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,608985,00.html

Latvia's government falls, economics downturn blamed.

http://www.foxnews.com/wires/2009Feb20/0,4670,EULatviaGovernmentResigns,00.html

NYU Students protest of Investments of school

http://wcbstv.com/cbs2crew/nyu.protest.police.2.939419.html
Sign of things to come.

Cramer Where the Heck Is Tim Geithner?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29304624
I agree on one point, it has been strange that the Press sectary and not Tim made the announcement. What is he doing? Meeting with the auto team? Anyone feel like there is something big going on behind the scene?

Auction rate securties a year later

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=aiZtqBGgvPMA&refer=home

China stops buying GSe debt

http://www.monkeybusinessblog.com/mbb_weblog/2009/02/asia-to-freddie-and-fannie-thats-nice-kids-now-please-put-your-uncle-sam-on-the-phone.html

One small problem is the government takes them on the books, you bust the debt celing with it to about 15 or 16 Trillion overnight. Hmm, might cause the rating agency some heartburn. Once again you can only issue some much at one time before you are cut off.

Why are some WWII documents still classified

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/sep/25/usa.secondworldwar
Many major business help the Nazis. IBM, Ford and the Kenndy family. Just sad we can not release all of this and be done with it.

Support levels broken

http://thetraderblog.com/?p=2008
No end in Site. 5000 DJI is now looking possible.

Citi stops lending

http://thetraderblog.com/?p=2006

Signs of Cash problems? Signs of impending Nationalization?
Guess some people will not be getting any rest this weekend.

60 days or less C and BAC gone.

http://www.chartingstocks.net/2009/02/gone-in-60-days-citi-and-bank-of-america-wont-live-to-see-may/#more-876

Where we go from here is up to Ben and Tim.

Who owns Trader Joe's

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/19/do-you-know-who-owns-trader-joes/#more-4031
And is this a better play then walmart?

Charlie Rose with Mark Zandi, Nina Easton, Fred Mishkin and Nouriel Roubini

http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/10090

Saab goes BK, world does not end for sweden.

http://www.businessinsider.com/saab-bankrupt-2009-2

The only reason to watch CNBC

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1039849853

Rick Santelli is one of the best.

UPDATE: Interview with Santelli - Santelli: “I guess in the end, I believe in the founding fathers, and I believe that in America… the pursuit of happiness and to work hard and keep the fruits of your labor is something I believe in. And I’m not saying we should forget people who need help. But at the end of the day, Americans are strong and they’re charitable. I think what they have a problem with is that it’s force-fed via the government. ”

Chart from Financial Ninja

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnceWtlvkbaKtDju-bpI5IPUYk8-HmakN5KgGN2zIDcMAGo7fgLqJTEycxLA6MdcWsVMz0CwV2l-Pm7gyva1e7fwZ2zFia3oWHWsxwCFH0Uu4k-20r8PcRCsN37oOOJpBtdYlQYSQhZqc-/s1600-h/CPC.png

Looks like all signs now point down.

California Legislature passes spending plan

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-budget20-2009feb20,0,5263469.story

One small problem, the voters have to approve the tax increases. If they don't back to square one. But I am sure most people will happy vote for more taxes.

excellent recap of the banking problems -Today's Must read

http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2009/02/bank-solvency-and-geithner-plan.html

Is now the time to buy russia?

http://www.agorafinancial.com/5min/

“The Russian stock market is now trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 2.7,” Chris Mayer dutifully notes in his latest Special Situations alert. Such a valuation makes the world’s 10th largest economy essentially the cheapest market in the world… valued even lower than perennial market dogs like Argentina and Pakistan. “Argentina, a mess of a country, enjoys a price-to-earnings ratio three times greater than Russia’s.

“Russia is rich in natural resources. Gazprom, the state gas monopoly, has a natural gas field in east Siberia with reserves that alone would equal those of Canada, the world’s third largest producer of natural gas. Russia itself has one-quarter of the world’s natural gas reserves. It is also the world’s largest natural gas producer, and second largest exporter of crude oil in the world, behind only Saudi Arabia. Because of this, the prospects for Russia’s economy largely hinge on energy prices.

“Energy prices cracked in 2008 and have not recovered. The Russian stock market was also taken apart. (See nearby chart). That’s what happens when your chief export falls 75% in price.


“Bullish sentiments on Russia find foundations mostly in the cheap valuation of Russian stocks. But if you also believe in the coming bounce in commodity prices, Russian stocks are clear winners in such a scenario. At only 2.7 times forward earnings, are you compensated for taking the risk?

“The best way to play a rise in Russia’s stock market is to buy the Russian ETF, which trades under the symbol RSX. This gets you a basket of Russian stocks — heavy on the oil and gas, of course. It’s a tempting speculation. Whatever 2009 holds, as fund manager Eric Kraus writes, ‘Boredom is unlikely to be a major concern.’”

(Chris’ latest Special Situations issue — dealing with topics from investing in Russia, to Brazilian gold, to Scandinavian fertilizer — is a must-read for any investor seeking alternative investment advice

I like the play if they can survie. The markets where closed again limit down.

Let see how the shipping Container rates are holding

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/02/asian-container-traffic-tanked-in.html
Bleak, Bleaker and bleakest ever.

Sexing Up Books Isn’t the Answer for Banking Woes

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aoDAkaaW0y9c

Awesome post.

Poland stop the run on EE for now.

http://v2.ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/02/19/52675/ee-meltdown-averted-for-now/
One has to wonder if this is a finger in the dike moment.

New Records for unemployment Claims.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/02/unemployment-claims-continued-claims.html

http://www.moneymorning.com/2009/02/19/housing-bubble/

some critics say they were surprised that the proposal is more ambitious - and more expensive - than initially expected, and includes controversial changes to bankruptcy laws that could cause the mortgage market to freeze up.

Looks like a typical democrat proposal. This will take a long time to work through congress, if it every does.

One more reson the government is against Drug it funds the deficit.

http://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-of-the-federal-debt-is-financed-with-drug-money-2009-2

Mexico the Third War.

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090218_mexico_third_war
Excellent summary of the current situation in Mexico. Once again this situation will continue to increase till we have a serious discussion about the drug war and how to end it.

Today must read from the Atlantic How the Crash will redifine us.

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200903/meltdown-geography

Currencies in Devaluation Race

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/gold-fnm-BOE-CDS-EU-RE/index/a/21180

So here we are once again. Weakend by months of band aids the FED, treasury and the White house are holding empty guns. This time the Market may lose another 40% in a very short time. This time they must watch the drama unfold. Where we go after that will be telling. Either we hunker down and weather to storm or fight it some more and see if we get blown overboard with everyone else. I am afraid the time is short.
Buying the SP500 options I talked about last week. Along with massive short on the remaining banks. In short it does not look like much will be safe.

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index/a/21182

If you missed the frontline special please check it out here.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/meltdown/view/

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/02/17/layoff-lawyer-sees-ominous-signs/

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/02/17/layoff-lawyer-sees-ominous-signs/

Once more signs that problems are accerlating. We are qucikly moving off book as I have talked about before.

national legalization of marijuana

http://www.thebigmoney.com/articles/judgments/2009/02/11/audacity-dope
Funny in the great depression we have the prohibtion of Acholol which was replelled as well. Now is the time. This study did not take into accoutn the cost savings from the prision system.

Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production Cliff Diving

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/02/capacity-utilization-and-industrial.html
CR has a look at industrial production and the meaning of continued decline.

Social Collapse best practices

http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2009/02/social-collapse-best-practices.html
Very thought provoking article.

Bank Leverage stats

http://optionarmageddon.ml-implode.com/2009/02/17/bank-leverage-stats-123108/

Above 12 I would short any stock in this market.

IF I give you plane ticket would leave?

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE5185Y920090209
Funny story

Kansas preparing to issue IOU's

http://www.kansascity.com/637/story/1037212.html

Yet another state problem.

Russian Market Closed limit down.

http://in.reuters.com/article/asiaCompanyAndMarkets/idINLH60782520090217

FX dislocation happening

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/801-RED-ALERT-FX-Dislocation-In-Process.html

Very scary stuff, I do not normally post much from this site cause he is a very harsh bear, but weirdness is happening.

Weakness in tax collection at a new low and going lower

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/weakness-unmatched-in-35-years/

US, UK, Eurozone Banks Face Meltdown

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/02/us-uk-eurozone-banks-face-meltdown.html

Mish a long take on what I was talking about yesterday. The Black swan is increasing in strenght not shrinking. We are about to have a major meltdown unless radical things are done.

China markets up 19% a false move up

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/02/17/52546/chinese-liquidity-and-stocks-go-boom/

So I am going to loand you money and I want you to buy stocks. Good luck with that.
One only has to look at 1929 pre-crash to see how that worked out for everyone.

Even with the Stimulus money Cali is going down fast.

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE51G0J420090217

Another 20,000 people out of work will push California into double digits easily.
I am shocked that people in the state are not protesting outside of the statehouse. I am also shocked Obama's team is not taking this seriously.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey

http://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview.html
Approaching negative -40%, look for a very bad day.

Too big to rescue

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/02/too-big-to-rescue.html

The author allueds to the black swam which may be coming. GM goes down and the resulting CDS explosin takes out a large bank which in turn cause the whole system to burn down. I am very worried this type of event is increasing in probiilibaty rather than shrinking.

County Losing Billions; Pension to Require Triple the Payments

http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/articles/2009/02/14/opinion/slop/170county021409.txt

This is just one example of what is going on with pension right now. Massive losses tied with inflated expectations. Reality is going to hurt a lot of people.

You Don’t Need a Weatherman

http://www.good.is/?p=14864
or musing from the founder of the TWC.

financial coup d'etat? Today's Must read

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/02/american-vs-wall-street-banking.html

Why the Republicans are doomed

You can not support nationalization and call yourself a Republican. The party will not allow it. This is why they are doomed. We have to do this. Not Need, have to.
Look back a year ago and you will see the Maxine Walters was called very ugly names for trying to do the same thing to oil companies. It is a very slippery slop to allow government to do this. Cause then people will throw it out for every crisies. We need to define this as a one time event.

Japan GDp Drops 12.7 percent

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/02/japans-gdp-plunges-127-percent.html
The world is quickly going into a depression. Now is the time for decisive action. Not lending, not more debt, not more tax cuts and not more government spending.
It is time to find a another revenue source and a fundamental question of what government can provided.

Domino theory, Eastern Europe edition

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/02/16/52476/domino-theory-eastern-europe-edition/

Once again this seems to be one of a series of events that may blow in the next month of so.

How Banks Are Worsening the Foreclosure Crisis

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_08/b4120034085635.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index+-+temp_top+story

A major reason financial institutions and investors are so determined to avoid modifying loan terms more aggressively has to do with accounting nuances, say industry lobbyists. If, for example, a bank lowered the balance of a certain mortgage, there would be a strong argument that it would have to reduce the value on its balance sheet of all similar mortgages in the same geographic area to reflect the danger that the region had hit an economic slump. Under this stringent approach, financial industry mortgage-related losses could far surpass even the grim $1.1 trillion

Lets be real, there is no stop for failing houses prices. This is what a bubble does. Not to mention that fact giving the judge the ability to modify a contract after it was sign would be a major legal problem. We need housing to go to the right price, which is another 20% down at least. We need the banks to be fixed and people need to be held accountable for the bad loans. Everything else is putting off judgement day.

California Budget impass.

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-budget15-2009feb15,0,278140.story
It is clear no one in California is dealing with reality. With a decreasing population, a crashing real estate market and an unemployment rate nearing 10% in the state. Deep cuts and fundamental revision of what government can do and not do.
Borrowing against the lottery is one of more stupid things they are proposing. Till you deal with the long term problems the state will continue in crises.

Obama causing Las Vegas to slide?

http://www.ktnv.com/Global/story.asp?S=9831778
This is the problem with making something or someone a scapegoat. It is the unintended conqueses that will cause you heart burn. It is especial telling the the rank and file of labor is mad at Obama.