Idiots and your money

http://seekingalpha.com/article/109632-10-contrarian-reasons-for-a-bottom?source=headline1

The buy-and-hold discipline is dead and market timing lives.

Whatever, buy and hold is based on quarterly or yearly updates. Had you looked at your portfolio and said the financial are in trouble, I am going to move out of them you would have been good. Had you thought I am going to short, but hold the stock you would have been very well off. Had you ignored the market you got taking to cleaners.

Stock prices are just plain beaten up.

Really, they are market price. If the market prices them low it does mean they are beating up. It means the price was too high.

Speculation is dead.

Humor I guess.

NBER declares that the recession is here

Yes they are backward looking. So using them to justify a upward move is just as crazy to use them justify a lower move. It is all about market forward fundamentals.

Mr. Market has gone through most of the stages of “grief”.

Assuming we are done, we are not. Plenty of more grieving to do.

VIX and More reports that the TRIN Index is flashing a buy signal

Dont think that a high or low VIX is a direct correlation the market it is not. Just another measure of fear.

A Chinese SWF refuses to invest in foreign financials.

I only care what the government of China does with the 1 trillion of Treasuries and if it keeps buying. The individual investors does not matter in the large scale market.

The market doesn’t go down on bad news.

Cause the market is pricing in a recession. The only thing it wants to know is what happens in 1Q of 2009. right now not much worse then now. The market will change when it has more info. Right now the market thinks 2009 may not be so bad.

Nassim Taleb tries to out-bear Roubini.

Once again things are bad ,ignore them at your own risk.

Nouriel Roubini is partying like a rock star and seems to have groupies.

Well he was right. So what.


There are people trying to sell you this time as a buying opportunity. It is if you care about the short term money. It is not in the long term. 2Q 2009 will be bad. We will see the Obama hope fade and we will see the consumer beaten down from here. We will see unemployment rocket higher. Don't think so, look at the revision. Dont be surprised to see that last number go from 500K to 1 Million. Why? The revision from the past two months did the same thing.
Well he was right. So what.