Thursday, February 5, 2009

Black Swan month?

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bdf4ee70-f2e4-11dd-abe6-0000779fd2ac.html

http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/view/89251

http://www.reuters.com/article/Finance08/idUSTRE4AB7HT20081112

http://clusterstock.alleyinsider.com/2009/2/bank-of-america-bac-below-4

There is a lot a weirdness in the blogoshpere these days about camps, Marshall law and the collapse of the US government. While it is understandable in times of crises we to tend over react and in boom times over invest. It would take a major event to collapse the government. Look at England, Ireland, Russia, China and everyone else in trouble. So far we limp along. Even Iceland limps along. So to crash society you would a financial nuclear event. Do they exist? Sure. BAC and C going down the same month would be nuclear. But would it take out the government? No. There are only two events in site. The removal of our AAA rating which would stop government borrowing and the collapse or refusal of governments to buy Treasuries. Both would cause massive cuts from the government as it could not borrow more money. But like California we would limp along. I just don't see any set of events that would be that bad to bring down the government and cause marital law.

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