U6

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm

For those wondering the U6 is the closest the measurement from the 1930’s (At that time the calculated based on the people in make-work and very small samples) Which hit 25%
In 1980 the U6 hit 13.5%

So not that bad yet

Turkey resists IMF Help.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/11/07/business/wbemerge.php
The failout from this recession/depression will be felt for a long time.

GM end is near

http://www.247wallst.com/2008/11/gm-gm-first-hal.html
Save us please. Oh god. GM says that early 2009 would be the end of the company. Look for Government bailout to happen soon. Cause no one is crazy enough to let them go down.

401K theft

http://skepticaltexascpa.blogspot.com/2008/11/ben-franklin-was-right.html Hang the Bastards may be to strong a word for this.

Scientists Turn Tequila into Diamonds

http://www.physorg.com/news145255770.html
Were do I invest!

Country Default Risk

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/11/country-default-risk.html
Hey the US is still low on the list. Defauls of forigen countries is the next wave tied to a currency meltdown.

U.S. Treasury Department Debt

http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/11/07/treasury-bonds/
I give it 3-6 Months before we are broke at this rate. At that point massive budget cuts will be needed.

Unemployment Report

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/11/07/17974/us-economy-loses-240000-jobs-in-october/
The scary part is the revisions are massive. I would bet the revision for this month will put us close to -400,000.

Tell Obama what you want him to do

http://www.change.gov/

Cali going Broke

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gVKofKbtJ2gCh_9py0AYsipjglpAD949KJCO0
It is clear that some time next year CA will be broke. The US Government will need to bail them out or let them fall. This will be followed NY and FL.
Also raising the Sales tax usually causes any recession to be worse.

Great Read at the Big Picutre

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/undercounting-underemployed/
If you add underemployment to real unemployment you get around 16%. Big trouble ahead.

Credit Card offers save trees

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSN0636870920081106
Humor for the day

Der SPIEGEL

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,588419,00.html
Writting the headline is half the fun! Awesome story.

Poker the one skill we did not hear about

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2008-11-06/card-shark-in-chief/
Guess Mccain was right we dont know the real Obama.
Of interst the last Poker player was Nixon.

The big three

http://www.247wallst.com/2008/11/if-detroit-goes.html
$10 Billion to save $150B in Tax revenue. Hmm...

The big three

http://www.247wallst.com/2008/11/if-detroit-goes.html
$10 Billion to save $150B in Tax revenue. Hmm...

monetary reset

The word of the day. When a countries Monetary system fails and is replaced. Usually followed by a political failure. Where the government falls.

New Fed Research

http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/08/11/Wheelock.pdf
Awesome stuff from the 1933-1934 Foreclosure and Mortgage market.

Meredith Whitney spoke to Maria at the close

http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/11/05/meredith-whitney-speaks-wells-fargo-20-per-share/
Great stuff, I am sure most of the bank stocks will lower. I also agree that stocks are still way over priced and the wild cards she talks about have never been modeled together. In short we in uncharted territory with the end no were near.

Test One for Obama

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/05/AR2008110504137.html
Resist giving up secert balloting. USA was built on secert balloting so that the voter is harrassed or feels pressued to vote a certain way. I can not see this going away no matter how much the Unions want it.

Iraq VS the Bailout

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/24012700/the_new_trough?ref=patrick.net.
You know the issue is mainstream when rolling stone covers it. Fun read, the linkage aspect is interesting.

Why the Models Failed

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/05/business/05risk.html?_r=3&ref=business&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

“We’ve learned the hard way that the consequences can be catastrophic, even if statistically improbable,”

This goes back to my earlier post, we need to look at adding a human element to all risk based models.

FT on spot again.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/11/06/17903/fed-capitulates-the-central-bank-is-broken/
Clearly the WSJ is not second rate to the FT guys. This is spot on to what we have been seeing.

At its core, the Bernanke Twist is a direct effort to try and support prices; to stop destructive debt deflation. We are in uncharted territory though. The Fed is not just trying to game the market in US government debt. It’s trying to support the entire asset-backed debt market.

Which is particularly risky when the the Fed is effectively supporting those prices by positioning itself as a risk sump.

No wonder, as Krugman says, Fed officials are “nervous”. This is an all-out gamble.

Yo eleven anyone?

The more you pay the less it hurts

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/03/06/more-expense-less-pain/
Just fascinating stuff.

IMF releases World Economic Outlook Update

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/update/03/index.htm

Markets have entered a vicious cycle of asset deleveraging, price declines, and investor redemptions

The process of deleveraging could be more intense and protracted than factored into these projections.

Later in the document is the real meat, the 2009 Projections are bleak across the board.

Great read over at RGE

http://www.rgemonitor.com/175/Risk_of_Systemic_Crises_and_Asset_Bubbles?cluster_id=13043

Cisco

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27559945
Just awful numbers from OCT, 9% decreases in sales. Look for more bloodletting in Nov and Dec which are normally slower months for the IT sales. These guys have cash and use it to fund there own deals where need so liquidity is not an issue, just no one is buying. Also consider this is one of the most optimist CEO's there is and is outlook is bleak.

Bond sales

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aajOmDkW3xeE&refer=home
Zero. Credit Cards are clearly in trouble, and this is merely the rats refusing to board the boat.

Ambac and MBIA

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a677R1BN9B90&refer=home
The end is near for both.

Who knew the worlds fact

http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2008/11/04/top_20_cds_by_n.html
Our fate is tied to Spain and Italy not failing.

Goldman Wacks 10%

http://dealbreaker.com/2008/10/layoffs-watch-08-goldman-sachs.php
Hmm..Two months ago no job losses. Today 10%, tomorrow 20%?

Open letter to Obama

You want change? Try this one for size.

10 tens Obama can do with his politicial captial to save the country.

1) Stop the TARP, it is not working and it is a huge waste of money
2) Slowly stop all the stop gap measure Ben and Hank are doing, once again a waste of money
3) State that the credit of the US is the most important thing to protect.
4) breakup freddie and Fanny, into 10 companies, dump in the assests, fund them so they have 10% captial Requirements, revoke there Goverment Guaranty.
5) Cut Defence spending 25%, end useless weapons programs.
6) Social Secuirty, Move the retirement age to 70, Freeze benfits at current levels for 3 years.
7) Drop Corparte Welfare programs.
8) Privatize USPS and Amtrak
9) Kill the Department of Education
10) end the war on drugs, tax all sales. Split proceeds into buckets of Drug Education, Budget reducation. Release all non-violent inmates convited of sales/possieon of narctoics. Lowering the prision budgets. terminate DEA.
11)BONUS- Break up the DHS, use cost savings to lower deficit.

UBS Massive withdraws

http://www.swissinfo.org/eng/news_digest/Customers_pull_their_money_out_of_ailing_UBS.html?siteSect=104&sid=9926342&cKey=1225784567000&ty=st
Clear sign the UBS is in deep trouble and the bank run may sink it.

Wave 5

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/spx-SP500-elliott-theory-wave-random/index/a/19848
My grandfather was a huge believer in the wave theory. Following the two post on this it is important to note that the last waves are the worst declines. if this is true SP 600-500 is right on target. We can only hope for resistance at 500.

Testing 800 in the SP500

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27526911
I think we will blow past 800 and hope we find resistance at 500

Korea Reservers Fall

http://www.timesoftheinternet.com/16716.html
More problems in Asia.

Housing Bust next phase

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/the-great-american-housing-nightmare-next-phase-27880
Interesting and inline with the experence of the 1929-1933. The only question now is will it ever stop or will everything go to zero?

Serbia joins the list

http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/11/04/afx5645061.html

Good Technicial Look at the DJI

http://thetraderblog.com/?p=1638
Future could go any of the three. But I am leaning towards number 3.

In the wake of Shipping losses.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/11/04/17791/whos-in-the-wake-for-shipping-losses/
Clearly Greece, MS, RBS and HBSC are in trouble already, this just stokes the fire.

Dubai the next real estate bubble bursting

http://blownmortgage.com/2008/11/03/it%e2%80%99s-official-the-crisis-is-worldwide/
In the end the world is going into a recession, one of those never happen before events.

The Greater Depression

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/petrov/2008/1102.html
May you live in intersting times. Sounds like the next few years will exceed that.

France to force lending

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/3374512/France-threatens-to-seize-banks-German-bail-outs-escalate.html
One wonders when the crazyness will stop. It is stupid to force lending when the problem is overlending.

Phys-Econ

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/02/business/02view.html?_r=1&8dpc&oref=slogin
Clearly the use of models to predict things is not a great way to go. As the 'Black Swain' suggested models almost always underestimated or discount the extremes, Also it does not take in account group think or group behaviour. Which seems to more pronounced in the extreme good times and extreme bad times. We need a new combined discipline of Physiology and Economics. I think you could start now and use the last 10 years to build great models that explore group think in investing.

Roubini: Next Stop On Global Train Wreck Is China

http://www.clusterstock.com/2008/11/roubini-next-stop-on-global-train-wreck-is-china
Clearly you should be out there shopping to support china, NOT! More doom from Roubini who has been spot on so far.

Pirates

http://marketplace.publicradio.org/segments/working/pirate.html
Something other then who win the election :)

China from the WP

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/03/AR2008110303486.html?hpid=topnews
More troubling sings out of China.

Good read from Icahn about Ceo Pay

http://www.icahnreport.com/report/2008/10/compensation-co.html
consultants, that will be a curse word some day.

US bank takes 6.6B

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20081103/BIZ01/311030022
So the bailout is helping already sound banks become more sound? Sounds like a great waste of money.

We will take all of you with us.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601170&refer=home&sid=aYJZOB_gZi0I
Greedy Bankers exported the toxic debt so that the whole world coudl share. Nice of them.

World trade now at risk

http://www.gulfnews.com/business/Markets/10255447.html
Scary stuff.

UBS and Lehman

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aBJ_0ULSgrjY&refer=home
Once again if it sounds too good to be true it is. Nothing is like is a 100%.
Expect death and taxes.

Auto Sales

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aiTGcQ1RvucM&refer=home
Where terrible, one has to wonder who will be left standing. My money would be on toyota. I think we not have the big three for much longer, my be the big two or the big one.

End of the US 2009 Bond

http://baltimorechronicle.com/2008/110308Lendman.shtml

I have been telling people that the spending of the US goverement can not continue on the pace it is at. There just arent enough buyers to support the massive printing of treasuries we are seeing. If you think the article is scary, please review 1933 when it almost happen. Roosvelet was foreced to seize gold to prevent the US from a default. He was lucky. The next president will not be. I am so sorry for whom ever that will be.

To bonus or not

http://www.nypost.com/seven/11032008/business/let_em_eat_cake_136606.htm
I find it funny that in the worse economy most of the brokers have seen that they would jump ship in mass. But never underestimate the general public to do stupid things.

China: Factory owners are 'escaping'

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-factory3-2008nov03,0,7768849.story
In sign of the times to come factory owners are buring the book and fleeing the country. One has no idea how bad it will be there. When China falls below 8% growth it is the same as the US being below 0%. Why? Population. Too Many people leaving the rural areas and new workers are driving up the unemployment numbers. To quote Marx,

The production of too many useful things results in too many useless people.

Sri Lanka economy, rupee at risk from deficit, foreign debt: IMF

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gxE81wCFTwkY1pGfv-yuKuHrK8Lw
The list is growing faster and faster.

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5h4IIUbnetnsnjiq6OQn6FIZg5gBg
Also Brown is asking Saudi Arbia to pony up more cash as well. Good luck. With Oil's decline the goverment there is looking to cut cost and try to survie. Ditto China which has massive reserve, but the goverement there is very scared of the slow down and may be hording cash as well.

Anger from the Right

http://www.nypost.com/seven/11022008/business/no_bonuse_for_you_136491.htm
One of the most clearly Right leaning newspaper today issued a clear sign that Henry 'bazook' Paulson better stop the bailout money from being used to pay bonuses. With Two days till the election many officals are sweeting the anger from the body polictic over the bailout and a feeling it is enriching the banks.