Ultrabroke

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/how-to-become-ultrabroke/

Totally agree something is wrong with the returns on the double shorts. I see this in SFK with its weird trades versus the rest of the market. In the end buyer be ware.

End the war on Mary Jane

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/st_DEFICIT_20081201.html
From the Wall Street Journal no less.

A look at all the states

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/st_DEFICIT_20081201.html

And where the budget shortfalls are.

Pick a side

http://www.typetees.com/product/1466/Now_Panic_and_Freak_Out?streetteam=tcritic

Pick your side

http://www.keepcalmandcarryon.com/products/keep-calm-and-carry-on-poster

Oil going lower is very dangerous.

http://www.247wallst.com/2008/12/an-irony-in-low.html

Oil going lower is very dangerous. It will destabilize the mid-east, Latin America and most troubling Russia which is already in free fall. Also it is looking to be very bleak for all agriculture as much of it was sold with corn and grains at double or triple the current price and we could see major defaults and BK if the contracts are not fulfilled at the bubbled prices. With ethanol now dead corn is in free fall. But most of the crops where sold (But not paid for) at much higher prices. So the choices will be to defualt on all these contracts (bad for farmers and bad for us cause it disrupt the food supply) or the middle men pay the rates and default. Once again the food supply is disrupted. Bad times ahead.

U6 Unemployment numbers

For those who don't know I prefer to look at U6 versus U3(The general Unemployment number).

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/payrolls-plunge-stunning-533000-november/story.aspx?guid=%7B5446C124-6428-4C60-8CB9-30505CCA12AA%7D

An alternative gauge of unemployment - which includes discouraged workers and those whose hours have been cut back to part-time - rose to 12.5% from 11.8%. The number of workers forced to work part-time rose by 621,000 to 7.3 million.

Market watch does not disclose this as U6 but it is the December number. This number is gr owning about 1% per month. I view 12% or higher be very scary numbers. We are now at the lows of the 80's which where the worse outside of the Great Depression when we hit 25% (A guess number as the official numbers did not start till the late 40's)
If the 80's peaked at 12.8% and that was the trough of that recession we clearly have a ways to go. Additional the revision have been horrific.

Loss take toll in the hampton's

http://www.vanityfair.com/magazine/2009/01/wall_street200901

I am remined of a article I read about the people who lost everything in 1929. So much wealth built on debt. All gone now.

Cali wants you to take an IOU?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2TUhalNFDds&refer=home

Cash is king, paper you uses to wipe your....

Skater Marketing

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28051860

Humor for the day!

Commercial real estate

http://www.reuters.com/article/innovationNews/idUSTRE4B31D820081204

Commercial real estate continues to blow up. This is the first cracks in the Dam. Much more pain to follow.

Tough Love

http://clusterstock.alleyinsider.com/2008/12/roubini-nuke-general-motors-gm-ceo-shareholders--then-bail-out
I am on the side of letting the market take these guys out. But I would not want to pull that trigger. Something must be done to help the workers. If we let them fully fail you will see massive unemployment (20% would not be outside the realm of possibility).

SBUX

http://www.247wallst.com/2008/12/starbucks-sbux.html#more
Question for the day
If starbucks goes BK, will the USA go BK with it?

Bond market near breaking

http://www.euromoney.com/Article/2054070/The-US-treasury-market-reaches-breaking-point.html

Scary stuff.

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/12/breaking-zirp-barrier.html

If you look at the last chart on the post, you will see the flight to quality marked the peak of the 1930's recovery. When it crashed it took the whole market with it. Bring in the lows of 1933 which market the bottom.

When this happens we will put in a bottom some where between 3000-5000 if we are lucky.

Mexico and the war on Drugs

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/03/AR2008120303953.html?hpid=topnews

This war is fueled by the USA on both sides. We buy the illegal drugs funding all the gangs and fund the government to wage war on the cartels. No end is in sight. Combined with massive budgets that will be forced on the US you can expect the cartels to win unless we legalize drugs. What would this do? Bring the money out from the illegal world. Allow legitimate business to control the markets. Tax the hell out of the drugs. All you have to do is look at Prohibition and how it ended to see what would happen once we end the war drugs.

Fed's wants 4.5% interest rates

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122833771718976731.html
Now how did we get in this mess? Oh yeah over borrowing with low interest rates.
Give the drunk a another shot he is still standing.

World hangs by a thread.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/3537362/World-stability-hangs-by-a-thread-as-economies-continue-to-unravel.html

"The global financial crisis has not bottomed yet. The impact is spreading globally and deepening," said Zhang Pin, head of the national development commission. "Excessive bankruptcies and business closures will cause massive unemployment and stir social unrest".

All great economics problems cause massive change and not usually a good kind

"What happens when China attacks Japan? Will the US retaliate on our behalf?"

WWIII that is what happens.

Russia is a hostage to oil prices. If Urals oil stays below $50 a barrel for long, we are going to see an earthquake of one kind or another.

Likely to happen sooner then later.

Why the Dollar is in deep trouble.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/12eab3b4-bf06-11dd-ae63-0000779fd18c.html?nclick_check=1

“Investors might renew their flight to safety, though this time away from dollar-denominated assets, thereby forcing the US economy into a hard landing and pulling the global economy into a deeper recession,”

If we are lucky it will be a deep recessison.

Google

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122826503489174369.html

When you cuts perks you effect moral, when 97% of your revenue is one stream watch out. Rough water ahead for google.

Meredith Whitney Op-ed from FT

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/11344d06-befb-11dd-ae63-0000779fd18c.html

She is now more bearish? Ouch.

Auto sales ugly

http://www.247wallst.com/2008/12/ugly-motor-sale.html

The good news is that this was not any worse than the estimates. The bad news is that calling this good news would be like rewarding your kid for almost passing the math class being taken for the third time.

If you gone 25% each month when do you hit zero? Humor for the day.

Hedge fund sues WSJ for disclosure

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/91002758-bc26-11dd-80e9-0000779fd18c.html

SRM claims the newspaper acted in "flagrant disregard'' of its rights by publishing in August that the fund was down about 85 per cent since its inception in 2006.

Hmm your losses are double the SP index, sounds like news to me.

Cali is broke

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/12/02/18971/californias-fiscal-emergency/

Cuts are coming and taxes are going up.