Wednesday, December 8, 2010

The Next Black Swan: Congress Unthinkably Moves To Cancel Build America Bonds

The Next Black Swan: Congress Unthinkably Moves To Cancel Build America Bonds
No one ever said the government was perfect and the Republicans are already taking heat for more deficit spending from the tea party. Black swan? Nah.

Thursday, December 2, 2010

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

California Voters Fail To Legalize Pot

California Voters Fail To Legalize Pot
As longs there is a profit in Prohibition it will continue. End the Drug war or continue to see its effect on the distabilation of america.

Unemployment Benefits Are About To Expire For 4 Million Americans

Unemployment Benefits Are About To Expire For 4 Million Americans
Depression =unemployment plus famine.
Revolution =unemployment plus starvation
We are just in a recession because of the safty net protection us.

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Federal Auditor Says Obama's Anti-Foreclosure Effort Risks 'Generating Public Anger And Mistrust'

Federal Auditor Says Obama's Anti-Foreclosure Effort Risks 'Generating Public Anger And Mistrust'
HAMP is failure. the banks are cleaning up with fees in the program and then still foreclosing cause the loses don't have to be realized till the home is sold. Short sales and HAMP force immediate loss regonition.

Monday, September 27, 2010

The Oil Drum | How to Run an Oil Industry into the Ground

The Oil Drum | How to Run an Oil Industry into the Ground
Oh and we are the 4th largest importor of there oil and with Mexico oil fields failing for the same reason, oil looks to be the best long term play.

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Thursday, September 9, 2010

Fed Governor Admits: We're Useless

Fed Governor Admits: We're Useless
Several Random thoughts if the premise of the article is true.

If we accept we have skills mis match and it is not fixable in the short term, is changing how we handle immagration the answer? What if instead of H1 visas we gave all educated people (BS or approve) a green card would we increase the demand down range? Ie more people living here would mean more housing, service industry, more money flowing in the system. H1 is bad for both employees as you can be sent home at the whim of the employer and my drive wages down. While a green card makes you more of a protected class and should translate to a higher pay.

Two if we want to drive more manufacturing back to the USA we need to change the tax code which encourages it.

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Friday, August 20, 2010

Under The Surface, Capital Flight And Liquidity Worries Getting Worse In Greece

Under The Surface, Capital Flight And Liquidity Worries Getting Worse In Greece
Wow it is 1931 and this is creditsudlt. All we need is the final bank run to blow everything up. Crash likely hood now 90% before the end of the year.

Remember, This Gigantic Fannie And Freddie Giveaway Has Been In The Works Since Last December

Remember, This Gigantic Fannie And Freddie Giveaway Has Been In The Works Since Last December

Mark to Market would indead require a bailout of the GSE. It would also sink a lot of banks would then be forced to take loss since we would know the true value of the bad loans on the books.

Cantarell Finally Slips Below 500 kbpd | Gregor.us

Cantarell Finally Slips Below 500 kbpd | Gregor.us
Gving another year or two and the Mexico Government which lives off the oil reveune will be in serious trouble. We are talking massive budget cuts. Doom is nigh

Thursday, June 24, 2010

‘Reasonably high’ chance BP files for bankruptcy | The Climate Desk | Grist

‘Reasonably high’ chance BP files for bankruptcy | The Climate Desk | Grist
Lets consider that a BK by BP would be on the scale of all 5 major banks going BK at the same time, along with England going BK. Really realy bad. The CDS on BP alone would take out everyone. Not to mention the destruction of Pension in England and the USA.

Sunday, June 20, 2010

Credit-Anstalt

http://www.businessinsider.com/credit-anstalt-crisis-2010-6

Things are moving to head. Along with europen problems, we have some serious saber rattling in the red sea.

http://www.businessinsider.com/11-us-battleships-cross-suez-canal-into-red-sea-2010-6


I can not think Obama would attack Iran. But I can foresee a Israel attack where we stand by and let it happen. What would happen from here is anyones guess.

Monday, June 14, 2010

Wednesday, June 9, 2010

1930? 2010?

http://www.businessinsider.com/clips-from-great-depression-2010-6
Weird stuff going on. Still holding to a 50% chance of a major crash.

Friday, June 4, 2010

Must Read of the Week -50 things showing that doom is nigh

http://www.businessinsider.com/50-statistics-about-the-us-economy-that-are-almost-too-crazy-to-believe-2010-6

Total credit market debt in the United States, including government, corporate and personal debt, has reached 360 percent of GDP


Bank of Spain seizes savings bank CajaSur - MarketWatch

Bank of Spain seizes savings bank CajaSur - MarketWatch
Everyone is feeling a little freaky about a small bank seizure. Also look for selling to conitue now that we are past the option expiration date.

Thursday, May 20, 2010

CalPERS plans to seek $700 million more from state, school districts - latimes.com

CalPERS plans to seek $700 million more from state, school districts - latimes.com
You only to read this to see why CA is so screwed.

CalPERS doesn't need to ask lawmakers or the governor for permission to raise contributions. State law has long given the fund's board unilateral authority to authorize increases, which were set by others, but a 1992 voter-approved initiative gave the board the power to determine the amount of the increases.

Futures Down, Markets Tank Around The World, Euro Ready To Break $1.21

Futures Down, Markets Tank Around The World, Euro Ready To Break $1.21
Some one in Germany must have gone crazy. Continued Bickering will only undermine the Situation. Euro Target now parity with the dollar :)

May 4th

I invite you to look at my May 4th post again. Once again we are in a crash but it is being masked by modern trading vehicles. If you think anyone with any long term goals is in the market you be crazy and if they are they are not buying. I would imaging we are somewhere several points thousands points lower if not for the HFT programs keeping us up. I would be very careful as I now give it a 75% chance of a major plunge.
With it looking likely we see more issues around PIIGS and the likely double dip in the USA and Illinois looking like it might Bankrupt it major supplies. Not also counting the Oil Spill in the Gulf may be the worse natural disaster of all times.

Don't bet against PIMCO

http://www.businessinsider.com/serious-question-is-pimco-trying-to-freak-out-the-euro-bond-market-2010-5

In short the control of the bonds is much more important then control of the stocks. If you cant borrow you can be force to cut spending. If you think this will be limited to Greece think again. On top of this several states, ILL and CA in particular, are on the edge of disaster. Prepare for riots in these stares as things become ugly.

Friday, May 14, 2010

I give you the breach

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/npage/2_3051.html?mod=mdc_h_dtabnk&symb=CUR_EURUSD&sQuote=1
We just breached the lows of 2008/2009. No support below. I would guess we see 1.15 to 1.10 soonish.

The Market Goes Berzerk

The Market Goes Berzerk
WOW! I need some popcorn! Saw the Cramer stuff live. Awesome TV. Euro stopped at 1.25. More bloodshed to come

Euro hits 14-month low; ECB says no bond buying Currencies - MarketWatch

Euro hits 14-month low; ECB says no bond buying Currencies - MarketWatch
Wow massive slid (on a forex scale). Looking at 1.24. this was the lowest level a year ago. We break that no more techincal stops.

If It Smells Like A Funding Crisis And It Looks Like A Funding Crisis... | zero hedge

If It Smells Like A Funding Crisis And It Looks Like A Funding Crisis... | zero hedge

I give it 50-50 we are about the have a large stock market correction
The Dollar rally’s which is the only thing going up are very bad. The last two where 1997- Asia crash and 2000 when the Dot Com bubble started to crack.
I also suspect that we are in a first stage sovereign bank run against the Euro. IE everyone not in the EU is selling hard. If the Euro crack 1.28 it is going to be ugly.

Just my two cents

Is The Contagion Officially Spreading? Merkel Calls For "Orderly Insolvencies"

Is The Contagion Officially Spreading? Merkel Calls For "Orderly Insolvencies"
The small brush fire is now a nice raging fire. I am sure we can put this out somehow. Maybe some Gasoline and Euro's would help.

Greek Bailout Set, Papandreou Faces Challenges To Remain Premier – 24/7 Wall St.

Greek Bailout Set, Papandreou Faces Challenges To Remain Premier – 24/7 Wall St.
How to make your government unstable. Sell out your goverment to forgien banks. Take away benefits from the workers. Watch the bonfires go!

Thursday, April 29, 2010

The Phosphorus Crisis

The Phosphorus Crisis
Someone once asked where would you invest your money for a 100 years? Phosphorus before Oil or Gold

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Here's Everything You Need To Know About The Rapidly Approaching Crisis In Spain

Here's Everything You Need To Know About The Rapidly Approaching Crisis In Spain

If you think Greece is the problem, you need to head west. Spain is much bigger and much more likely to tank the whole thing.

Roubini on Greece

Roubini on Greece | Analysis & Opinion |

Strong stuff. I am shocked we are letting this situation continue to collapse. We are now seeing Contagion in Poland, Portugal and Spain. A few more days of this and we will have a major problem in Europe. If the Euro break 1.28 look out below.

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Friday, April 9, 2010

Threatdown !!!!!!!!

http://www.businessinsider.com/12-crises-market-2010-4
Most likely right now, spike in Oil. It seems very likely we will break $100 again. Pushing the world back into a recession (if you think we exited one to start with)

Mexico drug gangs turn weapons on army - latimes.com

Mexico drug gangs turn weapons on army - latimes.com

Sorry for the long break! Out for spring break. Back to the news. Mexico, a failling state. Deal with it now or when it is collapases. Heath care will be long forgotten I feel by the time we deal with this.

Monday, March 22, 2010

Sunday, March 21, 2010

Wow!!!!!!!!

Sorry for that. Google decided to delete my blog. Had to fight to get it restored.
Back to normal posting on Monday

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Greece Slits Its Own Throat

Greece Slits Its Own Throat – 24/7 Wall St.#more-60686#more-60686
I wonder if Greece will now exit the EU. Before I thought no, but now I am not so sure. Seems almost Revolutionly over there.

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

History does not repeat it only rhymes...

http://www.businessinsider.com/biggest-bet-against-the-euro-in-its-history-as-investors-short-currency-2010-2

Holy Cow, it is 1992!!! For currency fans you remember when Soros almost broke the bank of england by shorting the pound. Looks like we are about to see something fo down in Europe!

The Times of Monday, October 26, 1992, quoted Soros as saying: "Our total position by Black Wednesday had to be worth almost $10 billion. We planned to sell more than that. In fact, when Norman Lamont said just before the devaluation that he would borrow nearly $15 billion to defend sterling, we were amused because that was about how much we wanted to sell.

Friday, February 5, 2010

Wednesday, February 3, 2010

As Values Slide, More Weigh Walking Away From Mortgages - NYTimes.com

As Values Slide, More Weigh Walking Away From Mortgages - NYTimes.com
In short a rock and hard place. Either Banks start losing some money on the loans or loss the whole loan. One small snag they sold the loan in CDO contracts. Which means they are screwed :)

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Rising FHA default rate foreshadows a crush of foreclosures - washingtonpost.com

Rising FHA default rate foreshadows a crush of foreclosures - washingtonpost.com

Adding to the trouble was a now-defunct FHA program that enabled sellers to cover the down payments of buyers.

Free Cash!

Those with especially weak credit scores will also have to put down at least 10 percent instead of the usual 3.5 percent down payment.

Low Rates!

About 9.1 percent of FHA borrowers had missed at least three payments as of December, up from 6.5 percent a year ago, the agency's figures show.


The economy is improving!


What could go wrong.

Swiss warn UBS bank could collapse

Swiss warn UBS bank could collapse
Swiss say if USB collapase will take down the rest of the country. Wow.

Friday, January 29, 2010

Bernanke seen winning second term | Reuters

Bernanke seen winning second term | Reuters

-+300 on the final annoucement, keeping a close on China (And the curtail of lending) and Greece.

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Some good words for the day

Banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies.
...
The central bank is an institution of the most deadly hostility existing against the Principles and form of our Constitution. I am an Enemy to all banks discounting bills or notes for anything but Coin. If the American People allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the People of all their Property until their Children will wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered.
Jeffereson, Thomas

Monday, January 25, 2010

Friday, January 15, 2010

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Thursday, January 7, 2010

Recap of the top 10 for 2009

2009 Headlines of the year! Overall not bad. Some clear misses, some near hits and some home runs.
Top 10 Headlines in 2009

1) China-USA trade war -(Clearly started, but not at the level I expected)
2) Civil unrest in detriot (Not yet)
3) Drug War violense spreads to US from Mexico (clearly up)
4) Obama's Massive Tax increases. (Yep for heath care)
5) cali and NY decalre Bankruptcty. (so close but not yet)
6) The fall of muniplicials tied to SCDO (Not yet but close)
7) The Great Pension Crises (In full swing, with minus 2 trillion unfunded at this point)
8) Why Gold did not play out as expected (Yep with the 12% gain you lose 60% to taxes)
9) Oil at $100 Again (Wow so close at $80)
10) FDIC requires Bailout money (Yep!)

bonus!
11) Failed Bank list tops 100 (Yep!)
12) Ford the last car maker left. (Nope)
13) Why did the treasury bubble collapase. (nope)
14) Is this a replay of 1933 (Nope 1931!)
15) AIG goes out of business (Nope)
16) CRE Markets worse shape ever. (god yes)
17) Loses from the credit crises top $2 Trillion ( way over)
18) Euro/Dollar now at 1:1 (Nope)
19) Major Crisies forces change in China (Not yet the bubble holds)
20) Putin is discredited and steps down (nope)

Top 10 for 2010

1) Dems hold both house and senate. The civil war and lack of money will do in the Republicans.
2) Greece fails. They Drop the EU.
3) The surprise trade of the year? The dollar silly :)
4) Gold under performs, more whinny complaints from all gold bugs. Sorry you need big wins to make this a winner.
5) Pounds falls to parity with the Euro.
6) Iran's government will be sourly tested but stands at the end of the year.
7) Immigration bill will not be passed next year.
8) U6 tops 20%, U3 hits 12%. Economic recover is tepid with negative GDP in Q3 and Q4
9) CRE and more mortgage loses cause over 400 banks to fail.
10) Ben the Printer and Larry Summers are gone by this time next year. Tim G holds on.