We will never lose tax payer money...

http://clusterstock.alleyinsider.com/2009/1/tarp-already-64-billion-down

TARP: Already $64 Billion Down

Is this still real money?

Poland joins the list of problems

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/01/16/51254/another-eastern-european-meltdown/

Best post of the day on C and BAC

http://benbittrolff.blogspot.com/2009/01/good-bank-bad-bank-rich-win-again.html

Ireland seizes fourth largest bank for the greater good

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0116/breaking29.htm
Paulson said to be thinking same thing

Latvia is shaken by riots over its weak economy

http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/01/15/europe/15latvia.php

Banks are done?

http://www.247wallst.com/2009/01/paulson-predict.html

the next $350 billion, is going to have to be sent to banks. If only half of that sum goes into the system to keep financial firms from failing, it will overwhelm their current market capitalizations.

Ouch so if we dont give them all the money we are dead. Are you F### kidding me.

Rubles continues its drop

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/600/42/373616.htm
Now at 1998 levels

Lost in the news about C and BAC is Circuity City

http://optionarmageddon.ml-implode.com/2009/01/16/circuit-city-liquidating/
Once we are seeing an increase in retails closing, of which this is only a small part.

SBUX and GLD

Picking up SBUX puts for Jan 2010 at $5
Buying GLD Calls at $84 for August 2009

Cali slides further

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/01/15/BAVT15B1TR.DTL&type=politics&tsp=1

In about three weeks they will have to issue IOU's. As cali goes so goes the usa....

Play the bailout game yourself!

http://www.thebailoutgame.us/

By the Numbers

http://www.theatlantic.com/images/issues/200901/bush-map.gif
8 Years of Bush

Is the TARP a covert Gold siezure moment?

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/01/last-time-fed-devalued-dollar-to-save.html
An Excellent read.

The end is near?

http://nymag.com/news/features/all-new/53372/
Maybe those that are closure are more pessimistic then us.

Mexico, worse than we know?

http://www.elpasotimes.com/newupdated/ci_11444354
Of interest too, take the poll.

More problems for the rubel

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/600/42/373575.htm
The Gas crisies with the Ukraine is draining reserve. At this no solutuion is in site. Very bad I would bet we see the rubel fall more than 14%.

Way Back Google

http://www.alleyinsider.com/2009/1/google-2009-estimates-still-too-high-goog
$200 by the end 2009 was my prediction from Nov 08, I see no reason to abandon it yet.

How badly were the Gulf’s sovereign funds hurt by the 2008 crisis?

http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/01/15/how-badly-were-the-gulf%e2%80%99s-sovereign-funds-hurt-by-the-2008-crisis/#more-4485

Take the ethics exam

http://nihoncassandra.blogspot.com/2009/01/ethics-exam.html
Funny

R.I.P. Patrick McGoohan

http://io9.com/5131312/rip-patrick-mcgoohan
One of my favorite actors and the prisoner may be one of the finest shows ever made.

The best take on BAC

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/time-to-fire-ken-lewis-of-bank-of-america/
I think Barry is losing it :)

Painful deleveraging. Coming soon.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/01/15/51203/painful-deleveraging-coming-soon/

Final roundup on 2008 Foreclosure Data.

http://news.prnewswire.com/DisplayReleaseContent.aspx?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/01-14-2009/0004955074&EDATE=

its 2008 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report(TM), which shows a total of 3,157,806 foreclosure filings -- default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions -- were reported on 2,330,483 U.S. properties during the year, an 81 percent increase in total properties from 2007 and a 225 percent increase in total properties from 2006.

Stunning. 2.3 Million. No way 5 million is right. I bet we see 20 Million over the next two years.

SocGen Says Depression ahead

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE50E39G20090115

He predicted that the S&P 500 index of U.S. stocks could be set for a fall of around 40 percent from recent levels.

I think we would be lucky if 40% down is correct. I forsee a targey of 3300 or so as the bottom.

It is becoming clear that the Chinese economy is imploding and this raises the possibility of regime change. To prevent this, the authorities would likely devalue the yuan. A subsequent trade war could see a re-run of the Great Depression

Dead on what I predict over a month ago.

In case you think this guy is overly bullish he was dead on Sept 4th.

http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2008/09/04/various_socgen.html

Why we are dooming the dollar.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8100.html

Cali loses its shine

http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/6616.html
My only other thought, as Cali goes so goes the USA.

Who know it would be lucky to invest in Bear and live in Mass

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2009-01-14/the-bear-stearns-lucky-bastards/

Buying PUTS against FLEX

Nortel is gone
Biggest loser FLEX

http://www.247wallst.com/2009/01/outlining-flext.html
If you can them cheap get the long puts.

Ben an expert?

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/01/bernanke-expert-on-great-depression.html
Clearly I did not need to read this to know this. Ben is leading us down the path to very bad times.

Madoff to make a deal?

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/why-might-a-madoff-plea-deal-take-place/

I would be very concerned if this happens. It sends a clear signal that if you steal lots of money you can get off.

FHLB problems mounting.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/01/14/51133/fannie-freddie-now-fhlbs/

Funny thought on Housing

http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20090114005162&newsLang=en\
I have read most people think foreclosures will top out at 5 Million or so. Yet we lost 1 million in 2008 and the numbers are still increasing quarter over quarter. I would not be surprise that this number doubles this year and exceeds the 5 million mark.

A look at problems around the world

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=au0WBR4aSKZo&refer=home
Ruble down again.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aklfQ2FM.8Zg&refer=homeWith its huge exposure to shipping and internal turmoil no surprise.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTII5LdMdzGs&refer=home
DB loses another 6.3 Billion, shocking is one report. More losses are coming.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aknybsZJKX2w&refer=home
Pension losses in Israel.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ai8ZshRIrB3E&refer=homeDecline in oil now impacting most Mideast countries.

All of these continue signal a deepen recession, no recovery in site yet.

USA AAA rating risk Have Grown

http://seekingalpha.com/article/114582-risks-to-u-s-aaa-rating-have-grownThe day we lose AAA is the end of the beginning.

They have a plan

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/01/what-is-ben-bernanke-thinking.html
Maybe it is the wrong plan....

Second most influential Book

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123146363567166677.html

Second most influential Book


Get it now if you have not read it.

Shipping rates hit zero as trade sinks

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/4229198/Shipping-rates-hit-zero-as-trade-sinks.html

"They have already hit zero," said Charles de Trenck, a broker at Transport Trackers in Hong Kong. "We have seen trade activity fall off a cliff. Asia-Europe is an unmit­igated disaster."

More signs the worse is yet to occur.

Race to zero

http://v2.ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/01/13/51087/on-your-marks-get-set-devalue/

Whoops 10 Billion in IndyMac problems.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/01112009/business/fdic_faces_up_to_10b_whack_on_indymac_lo_149620.htm

Counter Points about the Barron's article

http://clusterstock.alleyinsider.com/2009/1/mauldin-10-out-of-10-barrons-roundtable-gurus-are-wrong

Global Waming round up

http://english.pravda.ru/science/earth/106922-earth_ice_age-0
So much for global warming.

http://washingtontimes.com/news/2009/jan/12/obama-climate-czar-has-socialist-ties/

Surge in Protectionism Threatens to Deepen World-Wide Crisis

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123171020324471871.html
One of the easiest called for 2009 was more protectionism. Governments are beholding to special interests. Obama is in debt to the unions for supporting him over Clinton. They view this as a must have.

Luckly 13

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/600/42/373476.htm
How much longer before pressure mounts on putin to resign?

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/51bdbd3c-e00f-11dd-9ee9-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
I might not be the only one.

Hang on Tight! From Barron's

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123154458136069579.html
Long read, well worth the time

More signs of problems from Asia

http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/01/11/this-really-doesnt-look-good/

Stop loss is your friend.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/the-virtues-of-stop-losses/
I consider this a must read for any investor/trader

Excellent post from Mish

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/01/three-ideas-that-should-scare-hell-out.html

Bottom calling in China?

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/01/12/51016/are-things-really-that-bad-in-china/

Possible. But I think we still have a lot of pain to go.

Former Fed says end the drug war

http://www.elpasotimes.com/opinion/ci_11424658

Just look at the Prohibition on liquor. When it end, the great bootleggers went straight or went of business.

Obama to delay campaign promises.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/11/us/politics/11obama.html?_r=1&hp
No big surprise to me. If you come in at one of the worse times in the last 100 years, you may find it hard to have other priorities other than the economy. The bigger concern is the patiance of the usa voters. I give it 100 days at max. After that it may be very ugly.